Comments on: Cones of uncertainty around BSF http://blog.beyondcurrenthorizons.org.uk/2008/08/21/60/ A scrapbook of progress, ideas, emerging findings, and developments from the Beyond Current Horizons programme Wed, 31 Mar 2010 13:59:13 +0100 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: BCH Blog » Blog Archive » Why long term futures thinking is important http://blog.beyondcurrenthorizons.org.uk/2008/08/21/60/comment-page-1/#comment-574 BCH Blog » Blog Archive » Why long term futures thinking is important Wed, 31 Mar 2010 13:57:48 +0000 http://blog.beyondcurrenthorizons.org.uk/?p=60#comment-574 [...] mentioned in an earlier post that one of the main criticisms of big investments such as BSF is that they’re too [...] [...] mentioned in an earlier post that one of the main criticisms of big investments such as BSF is that they’re too [...]

]]> By: Dan Sutch http://blog.beyondcurrenthorizons.org.uk/2008/08/21/60/comment-page-1/#comment-516 Dan Sutch Mon, 16 Feb 2009 12:15:26 +0000 http://blog.beyondcurrenthorizons.org.uk/?p=60#comment-516 There's a raft of Futurelab publications that agree with many of the approaches you highlight - most recently http://www.futurelab.org.uk/resources/documents/handbooks/innovation_handbook.pdf However - the aim of this programme is to look at a range of possible futures and to present them to those whose role it is to make longer term investments - head teachers, policy makers, 'system leaders' etc. If the outcome of that is more distributed/flexible action then that links with your viewpoint. Whatever the scale of investment though, being able to systematically think about future possibilities to inform decision making is really important. There’s a raft of Futurelab publications that agree with many of the approaches you highlight – most recently http://www.futurelab.org.uk/resources/documents/handbooks/innovation_handbook.pdf

However – the aim of this programme is to look at a range of possible futures and to present them to those whose role it is to make longer term investments – head teachers, policy makers, ’system leaders’ etc. If the outcome of that is more distributed/flexible action then that links with your viewpoint. Whatever the scale of investment though, being able to systematically think about future possibilities to inform decision making is really important.

]]> By: Sahmeepee http://blog.beyondcurrenthorizons.org.uk/2008/08/21/60/comment-page-1/#comment-515 Sahmeepee Tue, 10 Feb 2009 19:09:27 +0000 http://blog.beyondcurrenthorizons.org.uk/?p=60#comment-515 While you make an interesting point about cones of uncertainty, it seems that you fail to follow it through to a logical conclusion: if we assume that uncertainty increases into the future then it would be rational to develop schools via less rigid, shorter-term plans. Being aware of the many technological/pedagogical possibilities along the way is equally as easy and schools and local authorities wouldn't be taken into the future on a runaway train of unsuitable contracts. Clearly this is very far removed from the BSF vision which mandates huge, unwieldy building projects allied with restrictive, inflexible, overpriced ICT outsourcing. What's more, technological expertise is largely dissolved from the core of the school as technical staff are outsourced, so awareness of future technologies is likely to be significantly limited. School staff will have no "experts" to consult and technological development will stagnate. Provide the money and allow schools freedom to innovate and success will follow. Tie them up in the straitjacket of government vision documents and protracted procurement procedures and we will have nothing to show for the £10bns of investment. While you make an interesting point about cones of uncertainty, it seems that you fail to follow it through to a logical conclusion: if we assume that uncertainty increases into the future then it would be rational to develop schools via less rigid, shorter-term plans. Being aware of the many technological/pedagogical possibilities along the way is equally as easy and schools and local authorities wouldn’t be taken into the future on a runaway train of unsuitable contracts.

Clearly this is very far removed from the BSF vision which mandates huge, unwieldy building projects allied with restrictive, inflexible, overpriced ICT outsourcing. What’s more, technological expertise is largely dissolved from the core of the school as technical staff are outsourced, so awareness of future technologies is likely to be significantly limited. School staff will have no “experts” to consult and technological development will stagnate.

Provide the money and allow schools freedom to innovate and success will follow. Tie them up in the straitjacket of government vision documents and protracted procurement procedures and we will have nothing to show for the £10bns of investment.

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